Lesson 10 - Identify Patterns & Use Past Experience

Identifying Patterns

Tracking item prices is quite an effective way when it comes to deciding if you should/shouldn't invest in an item. Once you have tracked or monitored the price, you then can try and identify any patterns or trends in the prices. Are there any months or events that influences the price of that item? In the morning, or at night should I buy/sell an item. For example, from personal experience I found buying items at night (10:00 GT TIME) was super cheap, and in the morning (19:00 GT TIME) I could easily sell it for a profit as not many players are online (around 19k), meaning I could pick my own price (1-2dl above normal).

I found a pattern that at night, there was high competition for selling items (around 50k players online during this time) meaning it was hard to sell, but easy to buy. Thus, I found a pattern, buying items at night, and sold it during the day. Other patterns include:

• Magplant (Rises slightly during Harvestfest)
• Crystal seed (Drops during winterfest due to calendars)
• Flamesabers (Constantly changes from 300wl to 10dl)
• Thingamabob (Rises every time Kyderby comes) + (Also rises when a new legendary quest comes out)
• Clover (Rises whenever a new expensive farmable comes out)

Using Past Experience

Often using past experience can be effective when buying/selling an item, allowing you to secure trades quicker than others. For example, imagine you bought an Xenonite Crystal for 1150wl, and sold it for 12dl like 2 days ago. Then today you find a player selling an Xenonite Crystal for 1150wl, and based on past experience you buy it immediately before anyone else does. Past experience gives you the knowledge and confidence to buy an item without trying to see if it's manipulated. You also don't have to go to other worlds or ask other people for the price. This also prevents other buyers/sellers from stealing your customer.

But you still must always be careful! When something feels too good to be true, something probably is not right. Sometimes you can tell if a buyer/seller is about to rip you off, by their reaction. If they immediately agree to an offer, then they either must be desperate, or the price has probably dropped or risen. Trust your gut, but once you become more involved and experienced in trading, this skill becomes second nature.